IPL 4 Predictions

IPL 4 begins tomorrow 8th April 2011, with opening match in Chennai. Each of the 10 teams play 14 games with 7 home and 7 away. Making it 70 matches. There would be 4 more maches to determine the winner of IPL 4, the final match to be held on 28th May in Mumbai. The format for the final 4 teams is slightly different with the top 2 teams getting an extra chance to qualify for the final  thus getting to the top 2 positions important in league phase.

The top 3 teams of course qualify for the Champions Trophy, later this year.

12 Cities play host to the matches. Pune team has their home base in Navi Mumbai and Kochi team plays couple of matches in Indore while Kings XI Punjab play few matches in Dharamsala. With 74 matches in 50 days it would be a tough schedule for every team, what with travelling across India

With Lalit Modi, the architect of the first 3 versions, nowhere to be seen it would be a different tournament at least from the glamor point of view. Which is good as well as concentration would be on good cricket rather than good looking models and parties.



My predictions – Mostly based on team compositions, players, captains and coaches and mostly gut feeling.

MI, RCB, PSW and CSK as the top 4 and Kochi and Rajasthan Royals the bottom 2.

Just a  wild guess. Lets see.

Let the fun begin.

699 thoughts on “IPL 4 Predictions

  1. My response might be delayed but could not help with it. My total of predictions stands at 54 with 32 correct 20 incorrect and 2 no results. The percentage of correct predictions is 61.54% which is not impressive in the least but maybe not that bad. Chintan has tried to compare his predictions with mine and with a total of 8 predictions for playoffs 6 are correct out of them which gives a percentage of 75% correct predictions which is commendable. However, comparing that with the total of 61.54% correct predictions made by 32 correct out of 52 predictions is not correct.

    As I pointed out earlier, the sample of predictions made should be comparable to make an objective assessment. Statistical studies also require a large enough sample of predictions based on any theory to show that it has any real value and this is not without reason. It would make more sense here to compare my predictions for playoffs with those of Chintan, if a comparison must be made.

    I had predicted that Chennai Super Kings or Kochi Tuskers Kerala should win the cup and Kolkata Knight Riders should reach the finals and lose. For these predictions to be correct, first these teams should have qualified for playoffs. Out of Kochi Tuskers Kerala and Chennai Super Kings, latter did qualify. Kolkata Knight Riders also qualified for playoffs. The predictions for reaching finals and winning or losing need not be considered separately when we consider the individual predictions for last 4 matches. Of last 4 matches, 3 predictions were correct. It makes a total of 6 predictions:
    1. Chennai Super Kings or Kochi Tuskers Kerala qualifying for playoffs
    2. Kolkata Knight Riders qualifying for playoffs
    Predictions of 4 matches.

    Out of these 6 predictions, 5 were correct which makes for a success percentage of 83.33%. However, first prediction about Chennai Super Kings or Kochi Tuskers Kerala qualifying is more of a general prediction and it would be logical to consider these as 4.5 correct predictions instead of 5 correct predictions out of 6. Interestingly, it gives a success percentage of 75%.

    It must also be said that a comparison of predictions based on different methods, no matter how interesting, is more of a subjective area for study unless the objective criterion used for making these predictions is outlined in detail. These criterion must have been used consistently throughout the sample which otherwise could throw the results out of balance. None of this happened here. Neither did I outline the method employed by me here for reference and explain how each prediction was made nor did Chintan explain the objective factors used for making each of the prediction in the name of cricketing logic. Without following such a painstaking method, anything said and done would be more of a subjective approach than anything else based on which nothing concrete can be accomplished.

    One more thing is that if a method should have been considered correct or incorrect for making a certain kind of predictions, it would not automatically mean anything for another system of making predictions. Every system of making predictions must be considered on its own merit just like if one were to prove that Ayurveda works it would not mean that Allopathy does not work or vice versa.

  2. As far as the question of a 9-year old being able to predict matches more accurately than number experts, as some might call it, or even cricketing experts, I would only say that there have been geniuses who were 9 or 10 year old when they composed their masterpieces. Of course, it did not take a genius to make these predictions but it does not also mean that every 9-year old interested in cricket could make the prediction or for that matter even grown-ups. If scientists predict that an eclipse would be clearly visible from a certain part of globe but a 9-year old points out that what if weather plays spoilsport then these two things cannot be considered against each other but yes weather must also be considered. If the eclipse is finally not visible due to bad weather some might think that scientists were incorrect and the child was correct. However, most would still acknowledge that the eclipse can be seen from the place if clouds disperse because we know how an eclipse is taking place and factors which decide where it would be visible. This is not always the case and people judge a theory by plain outcome without any thought of criteria used for them which may not be correct.

    It might seem like stretching the point too much but a case in point is theory of relativity which was actually considered valid after an observation of how light bends during eclipse in a 1919 eclipse but later it was found that this observation was incorrect. However, this did not serve to disprove the theory and later observations made in correct manner verified that the theory is correct. This is why proving any hypothesis and whether it works is a complex thing and cannot simply stand on the success of predictions made.

  3. Another question raised is about the percentage of chances for any team winning or losing a match. Well, all I can say is that if one fails to grasp the idea of strong or weak probability of something happening defined in percentages it is a sign of someone mathematically illiterate. What one has to say when Sidhu predicts on Extra Innings that RCB has 80/20 chances of winning such and such a match. Is he making an illogical statement? To my understanding, no. It is the percentage of probability of that team winning or losing the match. As Chintan says, if things could be absolute and it could simply be said that one team should win and another lose then what about a possible tie? What about a team winning by the margin of 100 runs or winning by 1 run? Why would they be called a strong win and a comparatively weak win or close win respectively? After all, a win is simply a win. However, the world does not operate like that. What would one say about a match in which one team played 10 overs with 56/3 until the game was stopped due to rain, ultimately the game was abandoned. However, is it not true that the game raised all the possibilities within those 10 overs with no result in sight? There are open-ended outcomes in real world and that is a fact. On the other hand, without ratios the whole world would collapse and as it goes mathematics would be its first casualty because it stands on the ideas of ratios and proportions.

  4. On a final note, I would again like to stress that it was the first time I was trying to predict IPL and am still working on a system to predict IPL. I am an amateur as far as knowledge of numbers is concerned or maybe even lesser. It requires a knowledge of larger trend of numbers to predict any tournament properly which I barely have.

    As a parting prediction, I would say that at least two teams out of Rajasthan Royals, Royal Challengers Bangalore and King XI Punjab should qualify for playoffs in IPL 5 to be held in 2012. Let’s see. If anyone is foolish enough to bet on my predictions, they can bear with the losses happily and sign me cheques for any money they might have made. I am waiting.

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